Dr Stefan Flasche


Associate Professor


Keppel Street
United Kingdom

+44 (0)20 7958 8272

I have a diploma (masters equivalent) in mathematics from the Technische Universitaet in Berlin and did my PhD in mathematical modelling of infectious diseases with Strathclyde University and Public Health England. Since my PhD years I have been fascinated by the complexities and challenges of pneumococcal vaccination which has been my main focus of work. As of 2018 my research in this area is funded through a Sir Henry Dale Wellcome Trust Fellowship.

I have also been frequently following related interest, in particular for outbreak response (swine flu and ebola) and adivising WHO on modelling (including dengue and malaria). I currently serve on WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunisation's (WHO SAGE) working group on pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and on the WHO SAGE working group on dengue vaccine.


Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology


Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
Vaccine Centre


I teach on both the modelling short course and the MSc module, on STEPH and ECCD and I co-organise and teach on the short course on epidemiological evaluation of vaccines. I supervise two to three Master student summer project each year and a number of PhD projects. I am also departmental research degree coordinator. 


My main research area is the evaluation and optimisation of vaccine interventions for S. pneumoniae through mathematical models. Despite the success of pneumococcal vaccines in substantially reducing the pneumococcal disease burden worldwide serotype replacement has mitigated potentially larger impact. I work with local and international collaborators to help better understand how to use existing pneumococcal vaccine more efficiently, ie reducing cost and maximising impact, and to help designing optimal future vaccine formulations.

My other interests include real-time evaluation of pandemic flu and ebola during outbreak situations as well as assessing and predicting the impact of vaccines against seasonal influenza, HiB, varicella zoster, melioidosis, non-typhoid salmonella, RSV, hand foot and mouth disease, malaria and dengue.

Research Area
Child health
Economic evaluation
Infectious disease policy
Public health
Bayesian Analysis
Disease control
Global Health
Mathematical modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Infectious disease
Pandemic diseases
Emerging Infectious Disease
Respiratory disease

Selected Publications

Assessing the efficiency of catch-up campaigns for the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: a modelling study based on data from PCV10 introduction in Kilifi, Kenya.
Flasche, S. ; Ojal, J. ; Le Polain de Waroux, O. ; Otiende, M. ; O'Brien, K.L. ; Kiti, M. ; Nokes, D.J. ; Edmunds, W.J. ; Scott, J.A.G. ;
Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models.
Penny, M.A.; Verity, R.; Bever, C.A.; Sauboin, C.; Galactionova, K.; Flasche, S.; White, M.T.; Wenger, E.A.; Van de Velde, N.; Pemberton-Ross, P.; Griffin, J.T.; Smith, T.A.; Eckhoff, P.A.; Muhib, F.; Jit, M.; Ghani, A.C.;
The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study.
Flasche, S. ; Jit, M. ; Rodríguez-Barraquer, I. ; Coudeville, L. ; Recker, M. ; Koelle, K. ; Milne, G. ; Hladish, T.J. ; Perkins, T.A. ; Cummings, D.A. ; Dorigatti, I. ; Laydon, D.J. ; España, G. ; Kelso, J. ; Longini, I. ; Lourenco, J. ; Pearson, C.A. ; Reiner, R.C. ; Mier-Y-Terán-Romero, L. ; Vannice, K. ; Ferguson, N. ;
PLoS Med
The Potential for Reducing the Number of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Doses While Sustaining Herd Immunity in High-Income Countries.
Flasche, S. ; Van Hoek, A.J. ; Goldblatt, D. ; Edmunds, W.J. ; O'Brien, K.L. ; Scott, J.A. ; Miller, E. ;
PLoS Med
Assessing Optimal Target Populations for Influenza Vaccination Programmes: An Evidence Synthesis and Modelling Study.
Baguelin, M. ; Flasche, S. ; Camacho, A. ; Demiris, N. ; Miller, E. ; Edmunds, W.J. ;
PLoS Med
Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on serotype-specific carriage and invasive disease in England: a cross-sectional study.
Flasche, S. ; Van Hoek, A.J. ; Sheasby, E. ; Waight, P. ; Andrews, N. ; Sheppard, C. ; George, R. ; Miller, E. ;
PLoS Med
See all Dr Stefan Flasche's Publications