London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

A new study carried out by the London School of Economics and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has revealed that the future crisis in family support for older people so feared by policy pundits and commentators will not make any real impact until 2030, when today's late 20- and 30-somethings hit retirement age.

Concerns have been mounting that in years to come there will be fewer people around to provide informal care for elderly people, because of the drop in fertility rates and the tendency for women to delay the age at which they have children. There have been particular fears that those in the 80 plus age group, whose needs are greatest, will be the hardest hit.

Mothers with living children and children with living mothers: the role of fertility and mortality in the period 1911-2050, by Michael Murphy (Department of Social Policy, LSE) and Emily Grundy (Centre for Population Studies, LSHTM) and published today in Population Trends 112 (Office for National Statistics) reveals that now, and in years to come, the number of older people with at least one child alive will be higher than ever before, partly because of the improvements in mortality seen in the last Century.

In the next 25 years, the proportion of women aged 80 with at least one child living will rise from about 66% to about 75%. The proportion of people aged sixty with a mother still alive will more than double between those born in 1970 compared to those born in 1911, and the chance of elderly people being alive and potentially available to help with care of grandchildren is higher today than it has ever been, or will been the future. However, the proportion will begin to drop for those born in and after 1970, which is when the implications for intergenerational relationships, care of elderly relatives and inheritance issues will begin to be felt.

'Improvements in mortality in the first part of the 20th Century led to a substantial increase in the likelihood of people having elderly parents still living in the last 100 years and, to a certain extent, we are living through something of a "Golden Age" of intergenerational relationships, which looks set to continue for at least the next quarter century', comments Professor Emily Grundy, one of the report's authors. 'It seems that the much-feared time bomb associated with declining fertility rates is not going to have any real impact on people's lives for many years yet'.

Ends.

For further information, or to interview Dr Emily Grundy, please contact the London School of Hygiene's Press Office in 020 7927 2073. To view the report, please visit the ONS website at www.statistics.gov.uk and click on 'Population Trends'.