London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Politicians have been urged to learn from the way scientists investigate public health emergencies as they seek to draw lessons from the recent riots. Noting that civil disorder is a threat to public health, both through the deaths and injuries at the time and the longer term damage to mental health, Professor Martin McKee of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Professor Rosalind Raine, University College London, propose a set of investigations that would inform policies on how to prevent riots happening in the first place and how to respond if they do occur.

Professor Raine says: “Public health research produces evidence based responses. Public health researchers have the expertise to design and evaluate complex community based interventions using innovative, robust techniques.”

Writing in an editorial in the British Medical Journal, the authors note how many of the statements made about those involved in the riots are based on anecdote rather than evidence. Simplistic analyses ignore how the rioters seem to include people with quite different motivations, with some leading attacks on shops while others took advantage of what everyone else seemed to be doing. They call for a systematic comparison of those areas where riots did and did not occur, and for a similar comparison of those who engaged in riots and those who did not, although they also note the need for caution as the most hardened offenders may be least likely to be caught.

They also note the almost complete absence of evidence about the best way to deal with those convicted of rioting, illustrated by the widespread variation in punishments being handed out. The authors argue that the scientific approach to discover which one is best at reducing reoffending would be to allocate different types of punishment at random and evaluate the results in the same way a trial for a new drug is conducted.

Professor McKee says: “As with any epidemic, it is not enough simply to ask why a riot happens. We need to know why it has happened now, in some places and not in others, and involving some people and not others.”