I’m an infectious disease researcher interested in real-time analysis, forecasting, semi-mechanistic modelling, and open-source tool development. I am currently based in the Epiforecasts group at the London School of Hygiene. I completed my PhD in the optimal usage of the BCG vaccine at the University of Bristol with a short sojourn into Data Science at a company specialising in peer to peer lending.
Affiliations
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
Teaching
I teach on the modern methods for infectious disease modelling short course (in particular leading the best practices session).
Research
My main research interest lies in developing, evaluating, and applying methods for improving our understanding of infectious disease dynamics in real-time. I am committed to doing science in the open, and collaboratively, with the aim of producing useful and actionable output. Most of my recent work has been targeted towards the COVID-19 response but my underlying focus is pathogen agnostic sparse data settings.
My current main areas of work are developing and evaluating methods for nowcasting right truncated data, developing and evaluating methods to forecast and understand variant dynamics, reconstructing unobserved infections from a range of data sources (such as count data and prevalence measures), and developing methods for the estimation of the effective reproduction number, the growth rate, and generation interval distribution as well as use cases for these estimates and understanding their interactions.
My current main areas of work are developing and evaluating methods for nowcasting right truncated data, developing and evaluating methods to forecast and understand variant dynamics, reconstructing unobserved infections from a range of data sources (such as count data and prevalence measures), and developing methods for the estimation of the effective reproduction number, the growth rate, and generation interval distribution as well as use cases for these estimates and understanding their interactions.
Research Area
Modelling
Statistical methods
Epidemiology
Mathematical Modelling
Mathematics
Disease and Health Conditions
Emerging infectious diseases
Infectious diseases
Selected Publications
Generative Bayesian modeling to nowcast the effective reproduction number from line list data with missing symptom onset dates.
2024
PLoS computational biology
