Spatial and spatio-temporal models in the time of COVID-19
In this talk Professor Marta Blangiardo will present some recent work she has done on spatial and spatio-temporal modelling of mortality data during the COVID-19 pandemic. She will first show the first comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal differences in excess mortality during 2020 across five European countries (Greece, Italy, England, Spain, Switzerland), using a population-based design on all-cause mortality data. Sex-specific weekly mortality rates for each area (NUTS3 regions) were estimated, based on a comparison period (2015-2019), while adjusting for age, localised temporal trends and the effect of temperature. Then, all-cause weekly deaths and mortality rates at the same spatial resolution were predicted for 2020, based on the modelled spatio-temporal trends, so that excess deaths could be estimated.
Secondly, she will talk about a two-stage spatial model to quantify inequalities in excess mortality in people aged 40 years and older at the community level during the first year of the pandemic in England, Italy and Sweden.
Speaker
Professor Marta Blangiardo, Chair in Biostatics, Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
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