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Dr Marc Baguelin

Associate Professor

United Kingdom

I am an Associate Professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Senior Lecturer in Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London. My group develops inference methods and tools for modelling infectious disease transmission and potential interventions. We are focussing on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach where multiple data streams can be used to inform parameters of complex mechanistic models in real time applications. Since January 2020, I have been part of the Imperial College London Covid-19 response team, involved in the Centre’s effort to understand the properties of the emerging virus in the early phase and subsequently leading the UK Real-time modelling team informing the UK government through SPI-M-O. I am also a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) and the Commission technique des vaccinations (CTV), France NITAG.

Affiliations

Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health

Centres

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases

Selected Publications

Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England
Manley, H; Bayley, T; Danelian, G; Burton, L; Finnie, T; Charlett, A; Watkins, NA; Birrell, P; De Angelis, D; Keeling, M; FUNK, S; MEDLEY, G; Pellis, L; BAGUELIN, M; Ackland, GJ; Hutchinson, J; Riley, S; Panovska-Griffiths, J;
2024
Royal Society Open Science
Combining models to generate a consensus effective reproduction number <i>R</i> for the COVID-19 epidemic status in England
Manley, H; Park, J; Bevan, L; Sanchez-Marroquin, A; Danelian, G; Bayley, T; Bowman, V; Maishman, T; Finnie, T; Charlett, A; Watkins, NA; Hutchinson, J; MEDLEY, G; Riley, S; Panovska-Griffiths, J;
2024
Epidemiology and Infection
Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic.
SHERRATT, K; Carnegie, AC; KUCHARSKI, A; Cori, A; PEARSON, CA B; Jarvis, CI; Overton, C; Weston, D; Hill, EM; Knock, E; Fearon, E; NIGHTINGALE, E; Hellewell, J; EDMUNDS, WJ; Villabona Arenas, J; PREM, K; Pi, L; BAGUELIN, M; Kendall, M; Ferguson, N; DAVIES, N; EGGO, RM; Van Elsland, S; RUSSELL, T; FUNK, S; ... ABBOTT, S.
2024
Wellcome open research
Author Correction: Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England.
Perez-Guzman, PN; Knock, E; Imai, N; Rawson, T; Elmaci, Y; Alcada, J; Whittles, LK; Thekke Kanapram, D; Sonabend, R; Gaythorpe, KA M; Hinsley, W; FitzJohn, RG; Volz, E; Verity, R; Ferguson, NM; Cori, A; BAGUELIN, M;
2023
Nature communications
Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England.
Perez-Guzman, PN; Knock, E; Imai, N; Rawson, T; Elmaci, Y; Alcada, J; Whittles, LK; Thekke Kanapram, D; Sonabend, R; Gaythorpe, KA M; Hinsley, W; FitzJohn, RG; Volz, E; Verity, R; Ferguson, NM; Cori, A; BAGUELIN, M;
2023
Nature communications
Transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in a remote island population.
HAN, SM; ROBERT, A; Masuda, S; Yasaka, T; Kanda, S; Komori, K; Saito, N; Suzuki, M; Endo, A; BAGUELIN, M; Ariyoshi, K;
2023
Scientific reports
Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling.
Brazeau, NF; Verity, R; Jenks, S; FU, H; Whittaker, C; Winskill, P; Dorigatti, I; Walker, PG T; Riley, S; Schnekenberg, RP; Hoeltgebaum, H; Mellan, TA; Mishra, S; Unwin, HJ T; Watson, OJ; Cucunubá, ZM; BAGUELIN, M; Whittles, L; Bhatt, S; Ghani, AC; Ferguson, NM; Okell, LC;
2022
Communications medicine
Regional-based within-year seasonal variations in influenza-related health outcomes across mainland China: a systematic review and spatio-temporal analysis.
DIAMOND, C; Gong, H; Sun, FY; LIU, Y; QUILTY, BJ; JIT, M; Yang, J; Yu, H; EDMUNDS, WJ; BAGUELIN, M;
2022
BMC Medicine
Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis.
Sandmann, FG; VAN LEEUWEN, E; Bernard-Stoecklin, S; Casado, I; Castilla, J; Domegan, L; Gherasim, A; Hooiveld, M; Kislaya, I; Larrauri, A; Levy-Bruhl, D; Machado, A; Marques, DF P; Martínez-Baz, I; Mazagatos, C; McMenamin, J; Meijer, A; Murray, JL K; Nunes, B; O'Donnell, J; Reynolds, A; Thorrington, D; Pebody, R; BAGUELIN, M;
2022
Vaccine
Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021-2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study.
O'REILLY, KM; Sandman, F; ALLEN, D; JARVIS, CI; Gimma, A; Douglas, A; Larkin, L; WONG, KL M; BAGUELIN, M; Baric, RS; Lindesmith, LC; Goldstein, RA; Breuer, J; EDMUNDS, WJ;
2021
BMC medicine
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