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Benefit-risk assessment, clinical trial simulation and health impact modelling of new vaccines: epidemic preparedness and predictive analytics - NU/LSHTM project

Supervisory team

Nagasaki University

LSHTM

Project

Background

As part of the SCARDA (Strategic Center of Biomedical Advanced Vaccine Research and Development for Preparedness and Response) programme in Japan, the Vaccine Research and Development Center (VRDC), DEJIMA Infectious Disease Research Alliance (DIDA), Nagasaki University aims to develop new vaccines against a range of infections, including high consequence infections (such as Lassa fever) and tropical pathogens (such as leishmaniasis). However, it is not clear how these vaccines might be used in practice and how they may be tested.

Proposed project

The research will involve reviewing the epidemiology of target infections and developing mathematical models of how they may spread. These models will be used to assess how the vaccines might be used to control the infections (e.g., responding to outbreaks of rare diseases or incorporated into routine immunisation programmes for common endemic infections) and to simulate clinical trial designs to assess different pathways to vaccine licensure. In addition, benefit risk-assessment of new vaccines will be conducted as part of epidemic preparedness, as well as health impact modelling of strategic vaccination scenarios. Potential research includes simulation case studies such as optimising dosing intervals for multi-dose regimens and extending use to lower-risk groups. Specific infections that may be studied include Lassa fever, Avian influenza A(H5N1), mpox, and/or visceral leishmaniasis.

References

The role of LSHTM and NU in this collaborative project

  • Laura Skrip’s research focus is quantitative epidemiology with expertise in mathematical modelling and statistical analysis, as well as the design and conduct of field studies to collect data on health-related behaviour and decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks. 
  • John Edmunds’ research centres on understanding the spread of infectious diseases and how best to control them. This uses a variety of techniques, including mathematical, statistical, and economic models. He is particularly interested in using these methods to help produce evidence-based public health policy.
  • Kaja Abbas’s research is on vaccine impact modelling with a focus on estimating the health, economic, and equity impact of vaccination programmes to support evidence-based decision-making on vaccination strategies in collaboration with partners and stakeholders at the global, regional, and national levels.
  • The proposed project aligns well with the mission of the Vaccine Research and Development Center (VRDC), DEJIMA Infectious Disease Research Alliance (DIDA) at Nagasaki University and Vaccine Centre, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, and Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response at LSHTM.  

Particular prior educational requirements for a student undertaking this project

  • Essential: Knowledge of infectious disease epidemiology
  • Desired: Experience in vaccinology and infectious disease modelling 

Skills we expect a student to develop/acquire whilst pursuing this project

  • Design of vaccine efficacy trials
  • Benefit-risk assessment of new vaccines
  • Vaccine impact modelling.