London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Deaths from extreme heat could triple in Europe by 2100 under current climate policies, mostly among people living in southern parts of the continent, according to a new study published in The Lancet Public Health.

The findings highlight the need to strengthen policies that limit global warming to protect vulnerable regions and communities from the effects of higher temperatures.

In recent years, Europe has experienced some of its hottest summers which have coincided with high mortality rates. Elderly people face a greater risk of death from extreme temperatures and the number of people reaching old age is projected to increase over time.

Previous studies predicting health risks of hot and cold temperatures in Europe have contained little local-level data and have largely focused on individual countries, predominantly in Western Europe. The study, led by researchers from the Joint Research Centre (JRC) at the European Commission in partnership with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), provides the first in-depth analysis of the current and future health risks from hot and cold temperatures between regions within countries across Europe.

Data from 1,368 regions across 30 European countries were used to model the current differences in deaths from hot and cold temperatures. The researchers then modelled the mortality risk of different age groups (from 20 to over 85 years) and produced estimates of current and future temperature-related deaths for four levels of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C) to estimate how risks could change by 2100.

The analysis revealed that temperature-related deaths are projected to rise by 13.5% with 3°C global warming, leading to 55,000 more deaths each year, driven by an increase in deaths from heat. Most deaths will be among people aged over 85 years.

Overall, with 3°C global warming – an upper estimate based on current climate policies – the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century. In the same scenario, deaths attributed to cold – currently much higher than from heat – would remain high with a slight decrease from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.

Hotspots that will be particularly affected by greater warming and increasingly elderly populations include Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France.

Dr Pierre Masselot, Assistant Professor in the Environment and Health Modelling Lab at LSHTM, and co-author of the study, said:

“After the heat-related death tolls of the last two years in Europe, this research shows that this trend will only continue to increase.

“It is clear that the Mediterranean area is particularly vulnerable and that, in a world that is now reaching a global warming of 1.5°C, radical climate mitigation policies that the EU can lead on are more urgent than ever, to reduce the burden on public health systems and protect populations at risk.”

Dr David García-León of the JRC at the European Commission and lead author of the study said:

“We find that deaths in Europe from hot and cold temperatures will rise substantially as many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur as the climate warms and populations age, while deaths from cold decline only slightly in comparison.

“Our study also identifies hotspots where the risk of death from high temperatures is set to drastically increase over the next decade. There is a critical need for the development of more targeted policies to protect these areas and members of society most at risk from temperature extremes.”

The results are based on data on people living in urban areas, who typically face higher levels of temperature stress so overall estimates may be lower. Further research is also needed to account for gender, ethnicity, or effects on other vulnerable groups such as infants.  The authors hope the findings are used in combination with local indicators of vulnerability to improve climate adaptation policies in Europe and avoid further disparities in public health.

Publication

David García-León, Pierre Masselot, Malcolm N Mistry, Antonio Gasparrini, et al. Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00179-8

This news story is based on an original Lancet Public Health press release.