I am an epidemiologist who specialises in the use of statistical and mathematical models for infectious diseases. My current interests are in polio eradication, norovirus, and vector-borne viral diseases. I am a co-Director for the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID), 2024-2027. I am the academic liaison for the Alan Turing Institute, where we aim to co-ordinate and support the use of advanced statistics and machine learning in research at the LSHTM, via the Centre for Data and Statistical Science for Health (DASH).
My research team are the modelling partners of Unicef within the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. We carry out analysis and modelling to better understand the epidemiology and inform policy decisions for polio eradication. My current collaborations involve close interaction with the WHO, BMGF and UNICEF to support the final stages of polio eradication such as understanding the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns, developing suitable strategies for response to vaccine-derived polioviruses and using wastewater surveillance to support eradication. I am a member of the SAGE polio working group at WHO.
Research to support control of COVID-19 has included looking at the role of climate, the influence of contact patterns and the use of surveillance. A theme that connects these diverse pathogens is wastewater surveillance – I have several collaborations, including secondment to UKHSA to support analysis and surveillance strategies to inform SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and other pathogens. More recently, I have been working with the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (South Africa) and the Christian Medical College (Vellore, India) to support analysis and interpretation of wastewater data in collaboration with other modelling groups (eg. SACEMA).
For my own Publications please see my regularly updated Google Scholar profile and the LSHTM site. I have highlighted several recent publications at the bottom of this page.
Current PhD students include Megan Auzenbergs, and Tomoka Nakamura, with co-supervisors being Kaja Abbas, and Koya Ariyoshi (Nagasaki University).
I regularly supervise MSc and MPH students, and have co-authored papers with 4 previous MSc students. Getting everyone interested in science is very important to me and I am happy to visit schools to talk about my research.
Affiliations
Centres
Teaching
Research
At the LSHTM I am involved with several projects:
• Effectiveness of supplementary immunisation strategies in preventing poliomyelitis outbreaks (BMGF funded, PI, and primary supervisor of Megan Auzenbergs)
• ES Analytics: Validation, Application and Interventions for Public Health (BMGF funded, PI). Involves collaboration with SACEMA (South Africa), NICD (South Africa), CMC Vellore (India), and Bristol University.
• Polio-SPEC: Surveillance Modelling to Support Polio Elimination and Certification (WHO funded, PI). This project focusses on developing and applying statistical methods to assess elimination of polio. Emily Nightingale is leading the research on this project.
• Investigating the role of social contact patterns on the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan (primary supervisor of Tomoka Nakamura - part of the WISE program)
Projects that have now been completed (as of Sept 2023):
• Modelling and analysis for the use of wastewater to understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and other priority pathogens (UKHSA secondment, and extra funding from the Alan Turing Institute)
• Why do norovirus pandemics occur and how can we control them? (Wellcome Trust funded project with UCL, PHE, Univ Liverpool)
• Epidemiology and vaccination strategies for type-2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (primary supervisor of MRC funded student Grace Macklin).
• Understanding the future trajectory of the Zika virus epidemic and strategies to prevent transmission (as part of the ZikaPLAN and ZikaAlliance consortia, with Oliver Brady and Laith Yakob)
• Development of suitable scale-up strategies for Wolbachia use in high transmission settings applied to Dengue (BMGF funded, led by Oliver Brady)
Selected Publications
