Evolution drives many of the most important characteristics of infectious diseases. The fundamental processes of evolution naturally fall into relationships that can be quantified and explored mathematically. Our work aims to capture these evolutionary dynamics to guide well-designed interventions for public health as well as to understand the nature of infectious disease spread.

For example, how does antigenic drift of influenza virus affect who we should target for vaccination? How does diversity in the relative fitness of drug resistant bacteria affect their ability to survive and spread in the hospital environment? What can we learn about host-to-host contact patterns from pathogen sequence evolution?

Our current research topics vary from within-host competition to human population modelling. Several of us are involved in modelling the development and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), the changing transmission dynamics of viral and bacterial pathogens and the general theory of microorganisms’ co-existence. We also have a strong interest in integrating molecular data into dynamic modelling.

People

Katherine Atkins (theme co-ordinator), Damien Tully (theme co-ordinator), Marc Baguelin, Nicholas Davies, Stefan Flasche, Alasdair Henderson, Stephane Hue, Petra Klepac, Gwen Knight, Quentin Leclerc, Julian Villabona-Arenas,