Researchers from the Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health contribute to Lancet Countdown modelling study assessing how health is affected by different climate change policies.

This is the first study to predict how health will change if existing climate commitments from the Paris Agreement are met, as well as more ambitious climate policies which have a deeper consideration for public health.

The team modelled nine countries’ commitments to climate change and the selected countries were: Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA).

The researchers calculated the number of deaths that could be avoided in 2040 for each country with better diets, increased exercise, and cleaner air.

Shifts towards flexitarian diets which would help countries meet the Paris Agreement were predicted to avoid 5.8 million deaths. If half of the population adopted vegan diets as well as this, 572,000 additional deaths could be avoided.

The study also assessed the impacts of increased levels of active transport. Compared to the current scenario, increasing participation in active travel in line with Paris Agreement goals could avoid 1.15 million deaths in 2040 across the nine countries. Providing further infrastructure and opportunity for people to walk and cycle could prevent a further 943,000 deaths.

Assistant Professor James Milner, member of the Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health who contributed to the study said, “The modelling clearly shows that taking action on air pollution, diets and travel across a range of countries will offer significant improvements for people’s health. However, these interactions are not yet embraced in climate policies and there is limited reference to public health in current climate policies.

“Embedding health considerations at the heart of our climate policies will help countries not only to meet the Paris Agreement ambitions but improve health and wellbeing of people all around the world.”

If countries were to meet air pollution targets in line with the Paris Agreement from decarbonisation of economic activities and access to clean energy, 1.2 million deaths could be avoided, with the greatest impact in Indonesia, China and India. Additional efforts to control air pollution in agriculture and industrial sectors could reduce a further 370,000 deaths across all countries by 2040.

Consideration of these multiple benefits not only strengthens the case for further ambition, but also opens the door for health professionals to work with policymakers, engineers, energy, transport and agriculture experts, and economists to ensure that human health is the foundation of all climate change policies.

Publication

Ian Hamilton, Harry Kennard, Alice McGushin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gregor Kiesewetter, Melissa Lott, James Milner, Pallav Purohit, Peter Rafaj, Rohit Sharma, Marco Springmann, James Woodcock, Nick Watts. The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30249-7